Last year, Shailesh Chandra, the Managing Director of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Tata Passenger Electric Mobility, stated that the company aims to achieve 50 per cent penetration by the end of the decade.
In light of the decelerating expansion of electric vehicles in India, Tata Motors, the nation’s leading producer of zero-emission vehicles, has adjusted its long-term projections for electric vehicle sales penetration from the previously predicted 50 per cent to now 30 per cent. Despite this revision, the company’s expected penetration surpasses the anticipated market average of 20 per cent by the decade’s end.
During the Investor Day 2024 presentation on Tuesday, Tata Motors outlined its ambition to achieve over 30 per cent electric vehicle penetration in its lineup by the fiscal year 2030 (FY30). This adjustment follows an earlier statement by Shailesh Chandra, MD of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Tata Passenger Electric Mobility, where he targeted a 50 per cent penetration by 2030.
Furthermore, Niti Aayog’s 2022 report estimated that the penetration of private electric four-wheelers would reach 9-11 per cent, and shared electric vehicles would hit 20-25 per cent by the decade’s end, figures that still fall below Tata Motors’ targets.
The company also forecasts that the Indian passenger vehicle market will reach a sales volume of 6 million units annually by FY30, with Tata Motors aiming for an 18-20 per cent market share. This would translate to approximately 1-1.2 million annual car sales, of which 30 per cent, or about 300,000 to 400,000, would be electric cars—significantly exceeding its current annual sales of 73,000 units.
Tata Motors currently holds a dominant position in the electric car market with a 73 per cent market share and offers five models. Electric vehicles constituted 13 per cent of its total car sales in 2023-24.
Despite the recent updates to the Nexon EV and the introduction of the new Punch EV, monthly sales have remained steady at about 5,500 to 7,000 units in recent quarters. The start of FY25 saw a decline in sales compared to the previous year during April and May.
The initial surge in early adopters appears to be levelling off as issues such as driving range, the charging network, and the higher costs relative to traditional internal combustion engines present challenges for further adoption.
Currently, electric powertrains make up 2 per cent of the passenger vehicles sold, while CNG accounts for 15 per cent. By the decade’s end, Tata Motors envisions electric powertrain penetration increasing to 20 per cent and CNG to 25 per cent. The company has planned a substantial capital investment of Rs 16,000 – 18,000 crore in its electric vehicle business through FY30 and aims to expand its model portfolio to 10 by the end of the decade. It also anticipates that the electric vehicle business will become operationally profitable from FY26 onward.
Additionally, Tata Motors intends to broaden its electric vehicle-exclusive retail channel, “.ev”, to over 50 major cities in the next two years. The automaker is also focusing on enhancing the charging infrastructure by expanding partnerships to support the establishment of public and community EV chargers across India.
